BY JOE MCKELVEY, LIAM MELLOWS, DICK BARRETT AND RORY O’CONNOR, IN QUICKLIME, CO DUBLIN

“IMAGINE THE IRA, BUT THIS TIME WITH A BADGE.”

These are the sobering words of Macnas McMacnas, Professor of Very Modern Irish History at Merciful Hour College in Dublin, when responding to Belfast Telegraph journalist Sam McBride’s query as to how the Irish Army would cope if Irish unity were met with significant Loyalist violence.

“The last time the Irish Army faced a determined insurgency, it defeated it in less than a year, using tactics so brutal that even the British Army declined to employ them – officially anyway – in the thirty years it fought the Provisional IRA. Yes, and if the Irish Army were unleashed with a Fine Gael Government in Dublin, the ghost of Kevin O’Higgins would not be far behind. He had his best friend shot without trial. Fine Gael may not be overly warm to unity, but once it happens, the law and order genes will kick in and defence of the state will take priority. And remember they’ve no skin in the game politically up North. So the gloves might come off and be replaced with Blueshirt knuckledusters. Indeed, I should think that a Sinn Fein Government – in the event of unity – would be a far more pleasant prospect for Loyalism – if there is violence – than one led by the descendants of Richard Mulcahy and the Dublin Guard. The former’s reputation is written in firing squads across the pages of not so recent Irish history; the latter’s in body parts from the exploding mines they tied their prisoners to.

“Of course, the hope is, that unity will not descend into the pointless ritual killing of random Catholics and hopeless car bomb attacks in small country towns. Getting anything significant into Dublin would be a big ask now. I think most Unionists understand this, and a number are shifting position, slowly. It’s just that no one among the serious Unionist community wants to be the first to stand up and say what everyone knows.

“Here is where it would be helpful if Unionism as a whole would acknowledge that it could actually thrive by playing king-maker between the various Nationalist parties in any new Ireland, and still play at being British all it wants at the same time. Like a giant theme park. The marching can go on forever. And ever.

“Tell me, what would any Loyalist campaign hope to achieve, with the British administration and power structures voluntarily gone? The Provos always had a very clear achievable goal, even if they stopped slightly short of it when they came to the negotiating table. Loyalism after Irish unity would be alone on the island, a very small minority of a minority of the population of the whole island, hemmed in by Nationalism to the north east corner, and around Portadown, cut off from Britain by the sea. A fortress can so easily become a prison. They would have no obvious allies, save some looney Rangers supporters and a few old MI5 johnnies who hate losing colonial wars; no open border to a place of shelter; no significant money coming in; no chance of re-establishing the United Kingdom; and no chance of declaring realistic independence. And add to that, a growing proportion of their Unionist brothers and sisters showing a willingness to deal with Dublin. Not to mention the fact that quite a few Loyalists themselves, involved in the all-Ireland drug trade, have already led the way by dealing with Dublin criminal gangs. The mind drifts to that Eugene Terre Blanche farce after South Africa was liberated from apartheid. His khaki covered goons lying on the ground, utterly defeated, begging reporters to help them. Before they were summarily shot by black troops in no mood for taking shit from the old boss.

“As for Irish Army troop numbers, well at the start of the Irish Civil War most of the new Irish Army’s potential soldiers were in rebellion against it. A year later there were fifty thousand plus in its ranks. And while rumors of talks with PMC Wagner, or other such units, are probably just that, my understanding is that the Irish military are already playing with serious drone technology – and that these drones can be individually targeted. They’re very small, look like large insects, and have a single charge of explosive or bullet in them. There’ll be no foot patrols in the future, not much to see of the enemy before one of his drones creeps up behind you and, well ….

“Really, going to war with Dublin, that hasn’t proved productive in the past. Remember, a man who can have his best friend taken out and shot without trial, he’s capable of doing almost anything.”