TAIPEI

FORMER MILITARY DICTATORSHIP Taiwan has elected a new President. Nothing special there. Democracy arrived late in Taiwan, but better late than never, as they say. The problem is the Communist Regime across the water in mainland China has previously warned that this result – a President who vocally supports Taiwanese independence – would be a virtual declaration of war.

“Oh, yeah, they’ve actually called William Lai a troublemaker,” says Bruce Chan of the Sydney-based think tank Mandate of Heaven. “In Chinese Communist Party speak that’s the equivalent of declaring him an outlaw and putting a price on his head.

“Crucially, though, only forty per cent of Taiwanese voters cast their ballot for Lai, which will please Xi Jinping. Lai’s mandate is not a strong one. This “declaration of war” clearly doesn’t enjoy widespread support. I think Xi will see that as something he can work with. The Chinese are known for playing a long game. And remember, Taiwan isn’t going anywhere. It will still be where it is in a hundred years. A thousand years. It’s even possible that – should Communist rule ever collapse there – at some point Taiwan could retake the mainland. Improbable but not impossible. Deep down, where commentators rarely go, you’ll find that the Civil War between Nationalists and Communists is not over yet. Paused but not over.”