BERLIN, GERMANY

“THE INGREDIENTS ARE clear. You have to be ignorant of, or indifferent to, history, super-confident in your own ability, personally insulated from any consequences of your actions, and utterly oblivious to the reality of the numbers as they present in the cold light to day. Then you can declare war on the world and expect long-term success.”

As Donald Trump declares war on friend and foe alike, Professor Auguste Verloc of the College of Anarchists based in London says the US President’s actions to date were all predictable. “He is attempting to make American business come home. It is a complete reversal of economic policy. For decades, US firms could exploit low wages abroad and sell back to the United States. Now Trump wants these businesses to manufacture at home. The problem is the hugely complex international system of supply cannot simply be pulled apart. And if US firms do come home, they will have to pay higher wages and so everything will cost more. It still be might be worth staying abroad and just paying the tariffs, waiting for a new regime in Washington to reverse Trump’s policies. The worst outcome would be American workers forced to work for Vietnamese wages.

“The effect on the rest of the world is to force it together. Be prepared for strange alliances. China, which could suffer most, either creates a working internal market, or faces real difficulty. It has devoted itself to an international system where it makes and exports cheap goods to the United States and elsewhere. If Trump corners Beijing, he should be prepared for a reaction.His current policy in Ukraine may well be an attempt to prise Russia away from China’s orbit. Unfortunately, by his trade policies, he may have driven others into the arms of the Middle Kingdom.

“Whether by intention or carelessness, he may well have woken a sleeping monster, German militarism. Add that to Russian resources, and watch what happens. I could see the European Union expanding, east and west. Greenland might want to fix its position; and maybe Quebec might throw its lot in with the neighbors across the Atlantic. Perhaps all of Canada, at some point. Anything is possible, remember: the enemy of my enemy …. or perhaps Trump’s plans will stall, Vance will not be elected in ’28 and the genius of he American system will move on, new heads, new policies, all friends again. Trumps memoirs will be fun. In the meantime, everyone should watch their backs.”